Samaritan · CEO Series A Scratchpad — Working Draft (Jul 2026)

Series A Readiness Dashboard

The 10x plan: reach 10,000 active billable members and ~$15.6M base Live ARR by Dec 31 2027, funded by a $12M Series A, building toward 25,000 members. This is an internal decision view — numbers are flagged by confidence, and the hard questions are foregrounded, not smoothed over.

Data confidence: Confirmed signed / contractual Model-derived assumption or Q2 run-rate; pressure-test TBD needs confirmation from owner

What matters most, at a glance

Six numbers frame the raise. The gap between what is signed today and what the plan requires is the entire job of the Series A.

The headline tension: the plan needs $16.82M of gross recurring bookings and a $42.06M qualified pipeline through Q3 2027. Today there is $2.94M coverage-qualified ($1.22M weighted). That is a $39.12M coverage gap and ~8,300 member slots still to source — the single biggest thing to de-risk before and during the raise.

Member-growth ladder — 10x to 100x

The North-Star trajectory at a blended $130 PEMPM ($1,560 annual recurring per active billable member). The Series A is underwritten against the Dec 2027 rung; everything past it is the credibility story.

Active billable members & base Live ARR by year-end

Base case excludes all value-based upside. Dec 2026 = 3,000 base assumption; 5,000 is a stretch, not the plan.

Base case vs. derisked case — what I'd actually set

The 10,000-member plan is underwritten to a number today's pipeline doesn't support ($2.94M qualified against a $42.06M target). The alternative: ~5,000 active billable members / ~$7.8M Live ARR by Dec 2027 — your own Dec-2026 stretch, given the time the sales cycle actually needs — raised at ~$9–10M and underwritten to milestones, not a member count. 10,000 stays the upside sellers are comped against, not the promise.

Side-by-side

Current plan · 10,000   Derisked base · 5,000

Same $2.94M pipeline, very different coverage

The qualified pipeline you already have covers the derisked requirement ~4× better.

Derisked member bridge · 3,000 → 5,000

2,300 net new in 2027 vs. 7,300 — mostly the three priority deals (~1,530) plus ~2–3 more (~$1.9M go-get).

Raise: $12M plan vs. ~$10M derisked

Keep the moat (product, security) and the cash floor; trim the ~$1M commercial overbuild sized for 10,000 and stage the rest behind signed pipeline.
$12M plan (10,000) ~$10M derisked (5,000)

Underwritten to milestones, not members

Member count is an output. These four gates are what make the next round a growth round rather than another survival round.
The one number to lock first: both cases float on the current billable Live-ARR baseline, still open for Ariel. Confirm what share of the 1,595 live members actually bills recurring before finalizing any target — it is the denominator for every multiple on this page. Best current read from the live deals is a ~$1.7M annualized run-rate, but that leans on a provisional HCLA figure.

The 2027 member bridge

How the plan gets from 3,000 to 10,000: retention holds most of the base, but 7,300 net new active billable members — roughly $11.39M of incremental exit Live ARR — must be sourced, signed, launched and ramped inside one year.

3,000 → 10,000 active billable members

90% assumed recurring retention; 300 churn/contraction allowance.

Why this is hard

The bridge assumes retention and activation that are not yet proven at scale.
Retention (90%) is a planning assumption. What portion of the current 1,595 live members generates Live ARR is still TBD · Ariel
7,300 net new = the whole growth case. At an average 500-member deployment that is ~17 deals; at 1,000-member deployments, ~9. The plan depends on large multi-market / national-parent contracts, not many small ones.
Time is the enemy. Average 143 days signature→first activation means a member signed late in 2027 contributes almost nothing to the Dec 31 2027 count.

Activation waterfall — contracted capacity ≠ active members

The plan needs ~10,600 gross contracted member slots to yield 7,300 active billable members, because activation decays sharply the later a deal is signed. This is the revenue-timing risk in one picture.

Contracted member slots vs. active members contributed by Dec 2027

Track = contracted capacity booked in each cohort · Fill = active billable members it yields by Dec 31 2027 · % = activation rate assumed.
Contracted member slots Active billable members by Dec 2027
The Q3 2027 cliff: deals signed in Q3 activate at just 25% — only 400 of 1,600 slots land in time. If Q3 bookings contribute zero active members, the plan loses ~400 members and needs ~445 more Q1 or ~667 more Q2 slots to hold 10,000. Treat new-payer / new-state Q3 signings as 2028 capacity.

Pipeline coverage gap

Recurring bookings requirement vs. qualified pipeline today. The 2.5x coverage target is a rolling requirement — as H2 deals sign they move into signed capacity and the target refreshes without double-counting.

Recurring bookings & coverage ($ through Q3 2027)

Requirement, 2.5x qualified coverage target, and what is qualified / weighted today.

Member slots: qualified vs. required

Coverage-qualified capacity against the gross EOY-2027 requirement.
~8,300 member slots still to source, qualify, sign, launch and ramp — before counting any signed-not-live capacity carried into Jan 2027. Roughly 17 × 500-member or 9 × 1,000-member deals.

Deal portfolio explorer

Every live, active and pipeline agreement in one place. Filter by revenue layer, funding rail or stage; consolidate the five rails into three key categories; group with live subtotals and a grand total; click any deal for its full revenue-quality read, term, CARR treatment and revenue contribution. This is where "what is actually recurring vs. grant-funded" becomes measurable, not just visible.

Group by
Funding rails

Revenue quality & funding rail

The candid read: most current contracted value is one-time grant / bridge money, not recurring PEMPM. The raise exists to convert grant-funded delivery into durable, plan-budget recurring revenue.

Current contracted value by revenue quality

Recurring PEMPM (Live-ARR-eligible) vs. one-time grant / bridge. Grant dollars fund delivery but are not ARR.
~70% of current contracted value is grant / bridge (CARR only, $0 recurring run-rate). The strategic thesis: Molina bridge → durable vendor contract is the clearest grant-to-recurring conversion in the plan.

Current contracted value by funding rail

Where the money comes from. Direct-payer operating-budget is the durable rail; HHIP / association grants are transitional.

Pipeline funnel — gross vs. weighted

Named recurring opportunities by stage. Only IEHP, AlohaCare and Molina Durable are coverage-qualified today; the rest need scope, budget owner and ROI acceptance before they count toward coverage.

Recurring opportunity value by deal

Gross annualized capacity vs. HubSpot-probability-weighted forecast. Bar order follows close-stage.
Gross annualized capacity Weighted forecast

Sales capacity & quota plan

The 2027 company quota carries deliberate execution buffer above the bookings requirement. Note the structural risk: post-close hires can barely affect H1 2027 — early bookings depend on pipeline built before the raise closes.

2027 company bookings quota by quarter

Stacked by seller. H1-weighted by design so activation has time to land by Dec 31 2027.

2027 bookings quota by seller

Total-year commitment per seat. Two post-close MVP seats ramp late and carry little H1.
Company quota through Q3 2027
$17.65M
vs. $16.82M requirement · $0.83M buffer
Full-year 2027 quota
$21.20M
Q4 reserved for early-2028 launches
Est. 2027 variable commission
$1.05M – $1.61M
65% ramp vs. no-ramp; rebuild before locking model
Sequencing risk: the current model assumes a $1.2M quota for a fully-ramped MVP; this plan requires materially larger enterprise quotas ($3.25M–$6.40M/seat). The 10,000-member case leans heavily on pipeline created by Jeff, Andrew, the CA MVP and Vu before the Series A closes — reset OTE, commission and hiring-cost assumptions accordingly.

Use of the $12M raise

Working hypothesis (Ryan / work-group to validate). Roughly half builds and pays the go-to-market engine; the rest builds delivery, product, security and a cash floor so the company "operates from strength."

$12M Series A — allocation by category

Hiring staged behind qualified pipeline, signed contracts and active-member milestones.
28% is balance-sheet protection — $1.7M working capital + $1.7M cash reserve. Member capital alone reaches ~$260k/month at 10,000 members; Ryan should size the working-capital line against a downside activation-and-collections scenario.

Risk register

The failure modes that would make the 10,000-member case not feasible, positioned by likelihood and impact. Focus attention top-left-to-bottom-right: high-likelihood, high-impact first.

Likelihood × impact

Hover a point for the risk. Colour = severity.

Ranked risks & owners

Operating & margin metrics

The delivery-side economics the raise has to improve: member-capital scaling, the gross-margin path, and the throughput constraints that gate launches.

Member capital by scale

Monthly member capital required — roughly linear at ~$26/member/month. Working capital still TBD.

Gross-margin trajectory

On member-capital efficiency and headcount leverage alone — before any additional automation investment.
Time-to-value (signature → first activation)
143 days
Driven by security assessments & Medicaid approval
Concurrent launches sustainable
3–5
3 proven last year; needs centralised security/compliance to hold a 3–5× cadence
PSL staffing ratio
2,500
members / PSL · 100 members/partner · 25-partner max book

Open decisions — Capital Strategy Working Group

The questions that must be resolved to lock the model. Owner tags mark the ones explicitly assigned in the scratchpad.

Revenue taxonomy — shared definitions

So the working group argues about the plan, not the words. Expand any term for what it includes and excludes for Samaritan.